NFL Draft Recap: Week 1 Fantasy Football Stock Price Implications

With the 2010 NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to take a look at the potential ramifications of the week 1 values (stock prices) of several prominent players who will likely be in the lineups of many fantasy football owners this season.  Many rookies will take years to develop into reliable starters.  However, here are several draft-week moves that will influence the values of several players right away in 2010.

BULLISH (Players whose values were helped)

Leon Washington: The Seattle Seahawks somehow nabbed Washington for a ridiculously low price by sending a 5th round pick to the New York Jets.  If he recovers from a major leg injury suffered during the 2009 season, Washington instantly ascends from the role of a complementary player in New York to the likely starting role in Seattle, where he’ll carry the load and dramatically increase his touches.

Frank Gore: Gore stands out as a beneficiary from the 49ers shrewd picks in round 1.  The 49ers dramatically upgraded their offensive line with the selections of stud OT Anthony Davis from Rutgers and masher OG Mike Iupati from Idaho.  The combined 650+ lbs. of Davis and Iupati will improve running lanes for Gore.  Perhaps this signals a renewed commitment to the ground game from head coach Mike Singletary.

Carson Palmer: Cincy was thrilled to see tight end Jermaine Gresham of Oklahoma fall to them in the first round.  Gresham provides another target for QB Carson Palmer, who struggled mightily during the 2009 season.  The Bengals are a run-oriented offense, but the addition of a top tight end fills a huge need and provides a great outlet for Palmer.

LeGarrette Blount: Call Blount a “sleeper stock”.  The RB from Oregon, who is best known as a punch-first, think-later player after his boneheaded punch of Byron Hout of Boise State, reneged on a verbal commitment to play for the 49ers and then signed with the Tennessee Titans.  He has a good chance to fill the change-of-pace, bulldozer role that LenDale White has played for the Titans in past seasons.

Joe McKnight: Another deep sleeper for week 1.  McNnight, from USC, isn’t likely to steal many carries from LaDainian Tomlinson or Shonn Greene.  However, Leon Washington had a ton of touches in the NYJ offense in 2009, and both Tomlinson and Greene have some durability questions.

BEARISH (Players whose values were hurt)

Matt Moore: Perhaps the biggest loser in the 2010 draft.  Moore’s long-term value has taken a major hit after the Carolina drafted not one, but two top QB prospects in the draft.  Moreover, Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame has a legitimate chance to start in week 1 for the Panthers (though personally, I’m not sold on that yet), and the selection of Tony Pike from Cincinnati (another top 5 QB prospect), indicates that Carolina is bearish on Moore.

Justin Forsett, Julius Jones: Forsett’s value is hit the most with Seattle’s acquisitions of Leon Washington and LenDale White.  Many fantasy owners had him pegged as a starter and likely RB2 in 2010.  Now, it’s possible that he’ll get less than a half dozen touches per game in week 1 and beyond.  Jones will probably be released by Seattle before the start of the season.

Roy Williams: Hear that sound, Roy?  It’s the thump of your tailbone hitting the bench as newly-minted #88 Dez Bryant of Oklahoma State takes your place in the starting lineup in week 1.

Darren Sproles: The Chargers moved up in the first round to select RB Ryan Mathews from Fresno State.  You don’t overpay the way the Chargers did for Mathews without intending to provide tons of touches.  Mathews should become the primary between-the-tackles runner in San Diego while Sproles resumes his change-of-pace, big-play role.  Mathews could easily split touches with Sproles from week 1 onward.

Kevin Smith: Jahvid Best from Cal was perhaps the most talented back in the draft, but fell to the latter part of the first round due durability concerns.  Assuming that the Lions manage to keep him upright during the preseason, he can be real difference maker in week 1 of the 2010 season.  Best is more talented than Smith.  Expect to see his stock move progressively north during the preseason.

Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch: The Bills pulled the first big surprise of the draft by selecting RB C.J. Spiller of Clemson with the ninth overall pick in the first round.  The Bills had bigger holes to fill — namely QB and OT — which speaks volumes about their opinion of Spiller, Jackson and Lynch.  Spiller’s stock should also shoot up during the preseason and he instantly becomes a second-tier running back when the 2010 season starts.

Thanks for reading.  Whose value has been helped or hurt most in your opinion?  I’d like to hear from you.  But most of all, remember that what I’ve written above is just my opinion.  Since opinions are far less reliable than market-driven valuations, be sure to join the Uptick Sports Fantasy Football Stock Market to tap into the power of our patent-pending stock market format approach to fantasy football player values.